The bets where our model's probability beats the market's. Every selection is calculated, never picked on a hunch.
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07
05selections published today out of 39 matches analyzed. The model’s EV threshold deliberately keeps the volume low.
A value bet occurs when the true probability of an outcome is higher than what the bookmaker odds imply. For example, if a team has a 60% chance of winning but the odds suggest only 45%, there is positive expected value. Over time, consistently betting on positive EV selections leads to profit.
MetaPred uses a shrinkage model that blends our statistical model probability (90%) with the market implied probability (10%). The expected value is calculated as: EV = adjusted probability × odds − 1. The publishing threshold depends on the market: +15% on 1X2 and +20% on over/under for the Poisson model, +5% for the XGBoost signal.
Seven competitions are covered: Ligue 1, Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Champions League and Europa League. The markets kept differ from one competition to the next — the market-by-market selection comes from our backtests, and unprofitable combinations are disabled.
The full record is published at the bottom of this page: ROI, win rate, profit in units and the number of selections tracked since launch. It assumes a flat one-unit stake at the odds published with the alert, and excludes unsettled bets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Value bets are designed for long-term profitability. Use flat stakes or Kelly criterion-based bankroll management. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. A single value bet may lose, but over a large sample, positive EV selections should generate profit.